Why Lithium, Why Now?

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information. Why Lithium, Why Now? Our ‘who cares’ attitude towards pollution and habitat destruction are all increasing what were once tolerable pressures towards, and sometimes already beyond, the breaking point in ecosystems all over the world. Fortunately, people, governments, and corporations are waking up and trying to reduce their carbon footprint. Our attitude towards environmental issues is changing, we are responding to potentially catastrophic climate change and to global (and all the way down to the micro-local and individual levels of), environmental degradation. One of the results of our rising awareness, and taking personal responsibility for our own actions, is that we are in the early stages of a major, decades-long transition in how energy is produced and stored. A global energy transition, from the burning of fossil fuels for energy and transportation, to using renewable non-polluting solar and wind energy is underway.     Lithium powers many of today’s handheld tools, our modern mobile communications, our computing devices and increasingly our transportation system. Lithium-ion is the leading energy storage technology, one cannot understate its importance in transforming not only communications gadgets into marvels of handheld technology but in taking electric cars from a niche curiosity into a major clean energy revolution for the transportation sector.       “The top five lithium ion battery manufacturers are ramping up capital expenditure with a view to almost tripling capacity by 2020.” The Economist China and India are both going to 100% electric vehicles. Every major car manufacturer has electric models. Volvo has even promised to phase out traditional internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2019. France has promised to end the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040, the U.K. quickly followed suit. Gigafactory’s making lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles are springing up across the globe. Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory, to be completed in 2018, will produce more lithium ion batteries then were produced globally in all of 2013. Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO has already announced plans to build four more Gigafactory’s. By 2021, Chinese Gigafactory’s will provide 3.5 times more gigawatt-hours of battery cells than Tesla’s current Gigafactory. Europe recently announced five Gigafactories will be built. Bloomberg reports that global battery-making capacity is set to more than double by 2021, topping 278 gigawatt-hours a year compared to 103 gigawatt-hours at present. “Lithium isn’t a bubble, it’s a fundamental change in energy usage.” finacialpost.com Morgan Stanley analysts project that by 2050, 81% of 132 million new auto sales will be electric. Danger Will Rogers Danger There’s a looming problem. “It's not clear that the resource supply chains exist yet for all these factories.” David Hart, director E4tech Translation - There isn’t enough lithium currently being mined to supply all those Gigafactory’s. "We estimate the lithium industry is going to need between $4-$5 billion of investment out to 2025." Simon Moores, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence The potential for supply-demand gaps to open up over the coming decade is significant, a supply shortage of lithium will cause major issues in the battery supply chain. Elon Musk said, in 2016: "In order to produce half a million cars a year … we would basically need to absorb the entire world's lithium-ion production." Exposure to lithium With the massive coming increase in demand for lithium - because of the massive swing away from burning fossil fuels to a battery fueled transportation system still in its infancy – and a supply chain not capable of meeting the increase now is a great time to be looking at select lithium stocks. Be warned, lithium prices aren’t cheap. Lithium focused companies had a great 2016. For most the trend continued into 2017. Some have seen a pullback in share price and in your author’s opinion are at an attractive entry point. Production, and near term production stories, would seem to offer the best leverage, or exposure, to rising lithium demand. Market share for the “Big 3” lithium producers, the New York listed chemical companies Albemarle, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile and FMC, has dropped from about 85 percent to 53 percent - China now has about 40 percent of the world’s market share. Also listed are several near term producers; Lithium Americas Corp., MGX Minerals Inc. and Nemaska Lithium.